The Shifting Landscape

Global Rights & Licensing Forecast: 2023-2025

A strategic overview for U.S. publishers on emerging markets, evolving business models, and the digital frontier.

Projected Share of Digital Rights in All Deals by 2025

45%

The surge in digital consumption formats—from audiobooks to serialized apps—is fundamentally reshaping the value of intellectual property and demanding more complex, multi-format deal structures.

The Global Battlefield: Geographic Shifts

The traditional dominance of Western European markets is being challenged by high-growth regions. Publishers must diversify their focus to capitalize on emerging literary appetites and rising digital literacy in new territories.

Hotspots: Projected Annual Growth in Rights Deals

Southeast Asia and Latin America are leading the charge, driven by a growing middle class and mobile-first content consumption.

Cooling Markets: Projected Annual Change

Mature markets like Western Europe show saturation, with growth slowing as competition intensifies and consumer habits stabilize.

The New Playbook: Evolving Business Models

While print translations remain a cornerstone, the composition of rights deals is diversifying rapidly. Audio rights, digital adaptations for streaming, and serialized content are becoming primary revenue drivers, not just ancillary subrights.

Composition of Rights Deals: 2023 vs. 2025 (Projected)

The forecast shows a significant shift away from a print-centric model towards a more balanced portfolio where digital and audio formats command a much larger share of the licensing landscape.

Deal-Making in the Digital Age

Innovative licensing models are moving beyond single-format deals. Publishers are now leveraging single intellectual properties across multiple platforms through bundling, subscriptions, and direct-to-consumer serialization, maximizing reach and revenue.

Modern IP Licensing Flow

Core IP: The Manuscript
Subscription & Bundling

▸ eBook + Audiobook Bundle

▸ Inclusion in 'All-You-Can-Read' Services

▸ Cross-Promotional Author Bundles

Adaptations

▸ Film & Television Rights

▸ Scripted Podcast Series

▸ Graphic Novel Adaptation

Serialization

▸ Chapter-by-chapter on Apps

▸ Email Newsletter Series

▸ Early Access via Author Platform

The Bottom Line for U.S. & NYC Publishers

Navigating this evolving landscape requires a strategic pivot. NYC publishers, with their vast backlists and industry influence, are uniquely positioned to lead but must adapt to new market realities and technological opportunities to maintain their global dominance.

Opportunities

  • Untapped Markets: Leverage strong backlists in high-growth regions like Latin America and Southeast Asia where demand for U.S. content is high.
  • Multi-Format Licensing: Re-evaluate existing contracts to exploit new digital rights (audio, serialization) for previously published works.
  • Direct-to-Consumer Models: Experiment with serialized content and author subscriptions to build direct relationships with global audiences.
  • Data-Driven Acquisitions: Use global sales and piracy data to identify trends and acquire rights for content with proven international appeal.

Threats

  • Local Competition: Rise of strong domestic publishers in emerging markets who better understand local tastes and trends.
  • Complex Rights Management: The explosion of micro-licensing and regional digital platforms creates significant administrative overhead.
  • Subscription Cannibalization: 'All-you-can-eat' models may devalue individual titles and pressure traditional royalty structures.
  • Pace of Technological Change: Failure to invest in new platforms and skills could leave publishers unable to compete for talent and audience attention.